Climate Change and Fisheries - Planning for Uncertainty

Sherry Flumerfelt, Executive Director, Monterey Bay Fisheries Trust

Sherry Flumerfelt, Executive Director, Monterey Bay Fisheries Trust

Sherry Flumerfelt, Executive Director

June 10, 2020

Over the past year, before the chaos of COVID-19 changed our lives indefinitely, I participated in several meetings to discuss how West Coast fishing communities can best prepare for the impacts of climate change. I attended a workshop hosted by the California Ocean Science Trust in July, an Ocean Climate Action Summit at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in October, and a two-day workshop hosted by the Pacific Fishery Management Council and The Nature Conservancy in January. I listened to the opinions of scientists, fishermen, managers, and other experts, and left these meetings with just one certainty – that there is no certainty when it comes to climate change. No one knows how this is going to play out, but the effects we’re already experiencing show we need to be prepared for change.

So, what are the experts saying?

Climate change may impact our communities in several different ways–some more grim than others. Among the key issues at play:

As the ocean warms, we expect species to move north to cooler waters, meaning that Monterey Bay could lose some very familiar species (like squid) and gain other new species (Monterey Bay opah, anyone?).

Marine heatwaves could be devastating for some fisheries—something we experienced with the “warm blob” off the West Coast in 2015. This resulted in harmful algal blooms (HABs), increased domoic acid in Dungeness crab, and resulted in fishery closures and economic hardships for our fishing communities. Fortunately, a second warm blob in 2019 seems to have fizzled out, but scientists say this warming trend will continue.

Scientists have found that ocean acidification—which has devastating impacts on many important fisheries, including salmon and Dungeness crab—is increasing twice as fast on the West Coast than anywhere else. Meanwhile, hypoxia (low or depleted oxygen concentrations), and HABs could cause widespread fish kills.

Scientists also talk about “ecological surprises,” such as the recent inshore feeding behavior of migrating humpback whales that contributed to an increase in entanglements with crab gear.

 Extreme weather events may also increase droughts, reducing river flows even further. This would be devastating for species like salmon and steelhead, as well as the communities that depend on these fisheries.

Then there are the impacts on port infrastructure that we expect to see as sea-level rises and storms increase. Storms may also make the already dangerous job of commercial fishing even riskier.

We are also likely to see an increase in competition between the fishing industry and other ocean users, such as desalination plants and offshore wind farms. If not planned carefully and collaboratively, such new projects could negatively impact the fishing industry and our communities’ access to local seafood.

 

Admittedly, this all sounds pretty dismal, but there are many things that we can do to be ready for changes when they happen.

To start, we can work with state and federal policymakers to encourage changes that allow for more flexibility for fishermen. This way, if one fishery shuts down, fishermen can more easily move to another fishery (currently expensive and limited access permits and quotas, and restrictions on transferring permits, make this very difficult).

It will be essential that representatives from the fishing industry are involved in these discussions and in a position to advocate for themselves and their communities with decisionmakers—something we are working on at the Trust through our Leadership program.

Just as fishermen will need to diversify, so will fishing ports. Studies have found that ports that support a diversity of fisheries—high volume, low volume, different gear types, different target species—are more resilient during challenging times. So in Monterey Bay, it will be important to have a mix of high volume wetfish and groundfish, as well as lower volume Dungeness crab, salmon, rockfish, spot prawn, California halibut, rock crab, white sea bass, and more.

We can also help support and strengthen fishing businesses so that fishermen are in a better position to weather the storms—literally and figuratively. A successful fisherman will be more resilient to seasonal delays or fishery closures than one who is struggling to make ends meet.

By encouraging the public to buy local seafood, we’re not only helping strengthen local fishing businesses, but we’re also helping reduce climate change. Ocean proteins produce far less greenhouse gas emissions than animal-based proteins, and eating local has a lower carbon footprint and reduces waste in the seafood supply chain. 

While the uncertainty we face may seem overwhelming, there is clearly a lot we can be doing now to prepare. By encouraging more diversity in our fishing ports, advocating for more flexibility in our management systems, and strengthening local fishing businesses and seafood markets, we are helping to ensure that our fishing communities are more nimble and resilient when the unknown kicks in.

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